Florida Is Watering for a Drought and Bracing for a Wet Winter at the Same Time
Through March 31, 2027, lawns may be watered one day a week, based on the last digit of the address, between 12:01 a.m. and 4 a.m. or between 8 p.m. and 11:59 p.m. Common areas and mixed-address properties water on Fridays only
Much of west-central Florida can water lawns only one night a week, in a window when no crew is on site, through March 31, 2027. Forecasters also expect one of the strongest El Niño events on record, with a wetter-than-normal winter favored. The properties that come through both will be the ones whose water is watched closely and can be adjusted remotely, the moment conditions change.
By Jon Peters, Founder and General Manager, Irrigation Managers. Former agronomist and Certified Crop Adviser, 33 years in irrigation and agronomy.
As of October 13, 2026. The Southwest Florida Water Management District's Modified Phase III "Extreme" Water Shortage order is in effect through March 31, 2027.
If you manage an HOA or a commercial property anywhere from Citrus County down to Charlotte County, this winter asks two things of your irrigation system that pull in opposite directions. It has to keep the landscape healthy on one watering night a week, inside a window when nobody is on the property. And when the rain finally comes, it has to shut down quickly and stay down until the plants actually need water again.
A timer set in October cannot do both. A person watching the right data can.
Key Takeaways
- One watering night a week through March 31, 2027. The district's order allows overnight watering only, and common areas water on Fridays only.[^1][^2]
- A wet winter is favored, not promised. NOAA expects a strong to very strong El Niño through winter, possibly the strongest on record. Plan for a dry winter and a wet one.[^3][^4]
- Sandy soil can't store a week of water. Typical Florida soils hold about 1 inch of water in the top 12 inches. Anything beyond what the root zone holds drains below the roots.[^5]
- Real-time flow measurement matters most. With one watering night a week, a zone that doesn't water or a broken mainline can cost the landscape a full week.
- No irrigation system manages itself. Soil-moisture sensors, weather stations, and rain gauges are valuable, but only when they are programmed correctly and monitored closely.
What are the current watering restrictions in the Southwest Florida Water Management District?
Through March 31, 2027, lawns may be watered one day a week, based on the last digit of the address, between 12:01 a.m. and 4 a.m. or between 8 p.m. and 11:59 p.m. Common areas and mixed-address properties water on Fridays only.[^1][^2]
The district's Governing Board extended its Modified Phase III "Extreme" Water Shortage order on September 22, 2026.[^2] It covers all of Citrus, DeSoto, Hardee, Hernando, Hillsborough, Manatee, Pasco, Pinellas, Polk, Sarasota, and Sumter counties, plus parts of Charlotte, Highlands, and Lake counties and parts of Marion County (the City of Dunnellon and The Villages).[^2] It applies to everyone, including properties on private wells.[^1]
The district had below-average rain in both its 2025 and 2026 rainy seasons, and its 12-month rainfall deficit through August 2026 was 15.4 inches.[^1][^2] Tampa Bay Water's C.W. Bill Young Regional Reservoir held 7.87 billion gallons on September 20, 2026, about half its capacity.[^2]
| Rule | What it means for a property manager |
|---|---|
| Watering day | One day a week: address ending 0 or 1, Monday; 2 or 3, Tuesday; 4 or 5, Wednesday; 6 or 7, Thursday; 8 or 9, Friday |
| Common areas and mixed-address sites | Fridays only. Includes subdivision common areas, office complexes, and shopping centers |
| Watering hours | 12:01 a.m. to 4 a.m., or 8 p.m. to 11:59 p.m. |
| Under one acre | One of those two windows only |
| One acre or more | May water before 4 a.m. and after 8 p.m. |
| Hand watering and micro-irrigation | Before 8 a.m. or after 6 p.m. |
| HOA standards | No HOA or other entity may enforce deed restrictions or community standards that require more water use, including replacing plants to meet aesthetic standards |
| Enforcement | Citations are issued first, without a warning |
Sources: SWFWMD; Hillsborough County.[^1][^6]
Your city or county may set stricter hours, so check the local rules for each property.
Will a wet El Niño winter end Florida's drought?
Not necessarily. A wetter-than-normal winter is favored, but not guaranteed, and the watering order doesn't end on its own. The district decides when to lift it, and reservoirs and aquifers take time to recover.
Definition: El Niño. El Niño is a periodic warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean that shifts storm tracks worldwide. In Florida, El Niño winters tend to be wetter and cloudier than normal.
As of its October 8, 2026 update, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center says a strong to very strong El Niño is likely through January to March 2027, with better than 83 percent odds. It gives the event an 83 percent chance of becoming the strongest El Niño since records began in 1950 during October to December.[^3] NOAA's winter outlook favors above-normal rain across much of Florida.[^4]
Strong El Niño winters have also brought more severe weather to Florida in the second half of winter. The 1997-98 event produced the deadliest tornado outbreak in the state's history. National Weather Service meteorologists caution, though, that tornado outbreaks can't be predicted from El Niño alone.[^7]
There is a catch. This event may be stronger than anything on record, so forecasters have no perfect past winter to compare it to.[^7] If the rain doesn't come, the drought would deepen going into 2027. And even if it does, the order stays in place until the district lifts it.
So plan for both: a dry winter where every watering night counts, and a wet one where the right move is to turn irrigation off and leave it off.
Why is watering one night a week harder than it sounds?
Florida's sandy soils hold little water, so the root zone can't bank a week's supply. The goal is the right amount on watering night, not the most the rules allow. And with a short overnight window and no one on site, a problem can go unnoticed for weeks.
Definition: field capacity. Field capacity is the most water a soil can hold after excess water has drained away. Water applied beyond field capacity moves below the root zone, where plants can't use it.
Most Florida soils are sandy, and UF/IFAS notes they typically hold about 1 inch of water in the top 12 inches.[^5] The root zone simply cannot store a week's worth. Once it is full, any extra water drains below the roots.
Winter helps. Shorter days and cooler temperatures mean plants give up less water to the air, and warm-season turf slows down, so plant demand drops. UF/IFAS notes that many lawns can be irrigated less often than allowed in winter.[^5] A site that was watered to summer demand in October is overwatering by December, even on one night a week.
The watering window is the other problem. A large common area with dozens of zones may not finish in four hours if the controller runs them one at a time. And nobody can reasonably ask a crew to stand in a parking lot at 2 a.m. on a Friday to see whether everything ran. If a valve fails to open, or a lateral line breaks halfway through the night, the next chance to fix it may be a week away. Without monitoring, nobody may notice until the plants show it, several weeks later. Meanwhile, a broken line running overnight wastes water in the middle of an extreme shortage, and citations come without a warning.
Managing a large irrigated site in west-central Florida? We can help you set a winter water-use target and check that your flow monitoring is ready before the next watering night. Request a Water Use Analysis →
Why is real-time flow measurement the most valuable tool right now?
Real-time flow measurement tells you what actually happened on watering night: whether each zone ran, how much water it applied, and whether there was a break or a stuck valve. Set up correctly, it flags a break immediately and can shut it down automatically.
Definition: real-time flow monitoring. Real-time flow monitoring uses a flow meter connected to the irrigation controller to compare each zone's actual flow with its expected flow, and alerts or shuts the system down when they don't match.
We are big fans of technology, and we use all of it whenever a site has it: soil-moisture sensors, on-site weather stations, tipping-bucket rain gauges, and rain sensors. Florida law already requires a rain sensor, or a switch that overrides the irrigation cycle, on automatic sprinkler systems.[^8] Each one gives the controller better information about what it should do, and gives the person managing your irrigation what they need to be more precise and efficient.
Real-time flow measurement is different, and it is the one we consider most critical. It tells you what actually happened. Did each zone run? How much water did it apply? Is there a break, a stuck valve, or a zone that never came on?
When the expected flow rate of each zone is loaded into a capable controller, and the flow meter is set up to read accurately, a break shows up as an immediate alert and can be shut down automatically, instead of being found after the damage shows. The same setup lets more zones run safely at the same time, which shortens the time a large site needs to finish watering. On a property with one four-hour window a week, that can be the difference between watering every zone and leaving some out.
Do smart controllers and sensors manage irrigation by themselves?
No. Sensors fail, weather stations drift out of calibration, and many systems were never programmed to use what they have. Full, reliable automation of landscape irrigation doesn't exist yet.
Here is the part that often gets lost. None of this equipment runs itself. Like all technology, sensors can fail. Weather stations drift out of calibration. Debris can keep a rain sensor from responding, or hold the system off when it should run. And many systems were never programmed correctly to make use of what they have. A weather-based controller fed by a poorly maintained weather station will still adjust the water, just in the wrong direction.
The day-to-day decisions still belong to a person who understands plant demand, supported by whatever sensors are in the ground. In the right hands, the technology lets that person keep a site on target across far more ground than they ever could alone. It does not replace them.
What should property managers do before the rain arrives?
Confirm each property's watering day and window, set a monthly water-use target, turn on flow alerts, check every sensor, give someone remote access to every controller, and plan the shutdown for when real rain falls.
- Confirm the watering day and window for each property, including Friday-only common areas and any stricter local hours.
- Set a monthly water-use target for the winter months, built from the irrigated area, plant demand, and how efficiently the system really applies water. Then measure against it in gallons or inches.
- Load the expected flow rate for each zone, verify the meter reads accurately, and turn on flow alerts.
- Test and clean the rain sensors, check the soil-moisture sensor thresholds, and confirm the weather station is properly maintained and calibrated.
- Make sure someone who understands your site, and how to irrigate it properly, can see and adjust every controller remotely. Decide who reviews the flow data after each watering night.
- Plan the shutdown. When a strong rain falls, turn irrigation off or reduce it to match the plant-available moisture in the soil, rather than letting the schedule restart on its own.
The records from that work pay off in one more way. When a water provider or a board asks how the property is handling the shortage, you can show a defensible, data-backed target and the numbers to prove you are managing to it.
How does Irrigation Managers help Florida properties through the shortage?
Irrigation Managers monitors and adjusts commercial irrigation systems remotely, so every watering night is checked and every controller can be changed the moment conditions do, whether that means tightening up for a dry week or shutting down for a wet one.
Our AIM framework is built for exactly this kind of winter:
- Analyze. A Water Use Analysis sets a baseline and a seasonal target for each site, based on irrigated area, plant demand, and measured system efficiency.
- Implement. Controller programming, flow settings, and schedules built around the legal watering window.
- Manage. 24/7 monitoring, flow alerts, remote adjustment, and reporting against the target.
Service starts as low as $1 per zone per month, with full management and reporting as low as $5 per zone per month. Our team is led by a former Certified Crop Adviser and a Certified Landscape Irrigation Auditor.
What's the bottom line for this winter?
This winter will reward the properties that watch their water closely and can change course quickly, in either direction.
There are good professional irrigation managers who do this work well, and we are proud to be one of them. However you get there, the goal is the same: deliver water to the plants when and how they need it, and stop applying what they cannot use.
If you are responsible for a large irrigated site in Florida and want help setting a winter target or checking that your flow monitoring is ready, give us a quick call or send a message. There is no obligation, and we will walk you through the whole process. Reach us at IrrMgmt.com or 1.800.473.7673.
Request a Water Use Analysis →
The same El Niño raises a very different question in the Pacific Northwest. [Read our Spokane outlook here.]
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current watering restrictions in the Southwest Florida Water Management District?
Through March 31, 2027, lawn watering is limited to one day per week based on address, between 12:01 a.m. and 4 a.m. or 8 p.m. and 11:59 p.m. Properties under one acre may use only one of those windows. Common areas and mixed-address properties water on Fridays. Local rules may be stricter.
Will a wet El Niño winter end Florida's watering restrictions?
Not automatically. The district decides when to lift the order, and reservoirs and aquifers take time to recover after a long drought. A wet winter is favored, but not guaranteed.
Can an HOA require more watering to meet community landscape standards during the shortage?
No. Under the current order, no HOA or other entity may enforce deed restrictions or community standards that require more water use, including replacing plants to meet aesthetic standards.
Do the restrictions apply to properties on private wells?
Yes. The Southwest Florida Water Management District's order applies to everyone in the affected area, including properties that irrigate from private wells.
Why does real-time flow monitoring matter with one-day-per-week watering?
It confirms what each zone actually applied, flags breaks and zones that never ran, and lets more zones run safely at once. With one watering night a week, a zone that does not water, or a broken mainline, can otherwise go unnoticed for weeks.
Do smart controllers and soil-moisture sensors manage irrigation by themselves?
No. They are valuable tools, but sensors fail, weather stations drift out of calibration, and many systems are not programmed correctly or monitored closely. A person who understands plant demand still needs to review the data and make the decisions.
References
[^1]: Hillsborough County. Modified Phase III "Extreme" Water Shortage Remains in Place as Drought Conditions Persist. September 24, 2026. https://hcfl.gov/newsroom/2026/09/24/water-restrictions-extended-through-march-31-2027
[^2]: Water restrictions in Southwest Florida extended until March. WWSB / mysuncoast.com, September 23, 2026. https://www.mysuncoast.com/2026/09/23/water-restrictions-southwest-florida-extended-until-march/ ; Tampa Bay area water restrictions extended through March 2027. FOX 13, September 22, 2026. https://www.fox13news.com/news/swfmd-extends-tampa-bay-area-water-restrictions-through-march-2027
[^3]: NOAA Climate Prediction Center. ENSO Diagnostic Discussion. October 8, 2026. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml
[^4]: Alex Pry. Strengthening El Niño may help tip South Florida toward a wetter winter. WPEC CBS12, September 23, 2026. https://cbs12.com/news/local/strengthening-el-nino-may-help-tip-south-florida-toward-a-wetter-winter
[^5]: UF/IFAS Extension. Watering Your Florida Lawn (ENH9/LH025). https://ask.ifas.ufl.edu/publication/lh025
[^6]: Southwest Florida Water Management District. Modified Phase III Water Shortage Extension Fact Sheet. https://www.swfwmd.state.fl.us/sites/default/files/medias/documents/Phase%20III%20Extension%20Fact%20Sheet%20Final.pdf
[^7]: Andrew Wulfeck. Building super El Niño to shape Florida's winter. FPREN via WGCU, August 22, 2026. https://www.wgcu.org/2026-08-22/building-super-el-nino-to-shape-floridas-winter
[^8]: Florida Statutes, Section 373.62, Water conservation; automatic sprinkler systems. https://flsenate.gov/Laws/Statutes/2005/373.62